ARIMA

Once upon a time, I thought I could outsmart the economists by using a model that incorporates the data of past relationships between events and the outcomes of the most current events in order to figure out whether the outcome of the upcoming event will be better or worse than predicted.

This autoregressive integrated moving average modelling proved to be an exercise in futility since financial markets are not really concerned (for long) with what economists have predicted as we can clearly see from the RCC statistics.

Our focus should not be on what economists are predicting. Instead it should be on how financial markets are reacting to the outcomes of those underlying influencing events.