How you could have caught the recent drop in the Euro using the Diffusion Aggregator

During March and April 2018, the Euro was still going very strong.

After conducting a thorough analysis on influencing factors utilizing Series Charting and Reflexivity Analysis, one would have arrived at the conclusion that the net effect on economic activity is negative, while that on inflation is balanced.

Then, during February and March 2018, the divergence between actual outcomes of events relating to economic activity to that of economist’s expectations showed a significant divergence (as per our Diffusion Aggregator results below).

The disparity between what market participants were actually discounting versus the underlying conditions needed correcting. This was a major piece of much needed evidence to validate one’s strategic analysis and signal the necessary go-ahead to tactically short the euro on minor rallies or other catalysts, obviously with proper risk control.